Friday 14 May 2010

A Brave New World

Becoming a student is all about preparing for the future. When you choose your course and university you should also consider what shape the world will be in three or five years time.

It pays to look into a crystal ball and try and make some educated guesses about what the future might hold.

In the spirit of Mystic Meg these are my predictions for the future.

1. China and India will continue their rise to global dominance, leaving the old Western nations to wane into economic obscurity. While English might remain a global business language it might make sense to become at least familiar with a Chinese language and an Indian language.

2. With the economic rise of China and India, and our desperate need as a country to compete with them, we must face up to the prospect of falling standards of living. I expect average salaries to fall over the next five to ten years and that money for “fun” discretionary use will evaporate.

3. UK property prices will crash in value. UK property prices are still massively overvalued. Nothing will change until the disparity between average earnings and average house prices is eliminated. Combine that with my prediction that average salaries will fall and you have a recipe for declining property values over the long term. I do not expect UK property prices to return to the heady days of 2007 ever.

4. The UK economy has been underpinned by a huge number of jobs that are either directly or indirectly paid for by the state. These jobs have been paid for through government debt. The poor state of the UK government’s finances means that this cannot continue. The result will be a massive rise in unemployment. Jobs in the state sector, or dependent on the state sector, will be rare and subject to massive competitive forces.

5. The UK government needs to pay off debt and reduce its costs. So look out for rising taxation and benefit cuts. Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) will also suffer cuts. Regional Development Agencies, like Yorkshire Forward, will face staff cuts and even the threat of closure.

6. Charities will rise in power. They will replace the old NGOs and use unpaid volunteers instead of well-paid, perhaps overpaid, staff. Charities will also take advantage of the internships system. Bringing in students for specific projects at little or no cost to the charities.

7. New scientific discoveries and technological breakthroughs will be made mainly outside of the waning Western nations. This being due to a lack of enthusiasm when it comes to supporting, developing and investing in such developments.

8. Energy costs will continue to rise and curtail the average person’s ability to travel, whether for work or recreation. The age of the long distance commuter may well be coming to an end except for the highest paid workers.

9. The brain/talent drain will continue and gather momentum. The smartest and best qualified will find it easier to emigrate to countries with brighter futures. Those left behind will be abandoned to their fates.

10. Finally, the Internet’s age of “Free” will come to an end. Content is costly to produce and someone is going to have to pay for it. The proposed paywall for The Times is only the start of what will eventually become the norm. If you want to be informed, entertained or educated you’re going to have to pay.

These are just my pet predictions. I don’t claim any clairvoyant powers and as such they are little more than educated guesses. But it is worth thinking about how these predictions could affect your future and your post graduation plans.